A First-Year Report Card On Carney's Canada

Breaking down winners and losers in Canada’s new political era

In this episode, Sabrina Maddeaux and Mike Moffatt look at the first year of the Carney government through a detailed, policy-by-policy report card, moving beyond headlines, polling swings, and political narratives to assess real performance on the issues shaping Canadians’ lives.

From housing affordability and the cost of living to immigration, jobs, unemployment, and Canada–U.S. relations, they break down where the government is delivering, where it is falling short, and where the biggest gaps remain between political rhetoric and policy reality. The conversation also explores shifting voter priorities, generational divides, and whether Canada’s new political era is translating into meaningful change on the ground.

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Below is an AI-generated transcript of the Missing Middle podcast, lightly edited.

Mike Moffatt: Last year, on March 14th, Mark Carney became prime minister, rivalling only my birthday as the most important March 14th in Canadian history. And then soon after that, we had a federal election, and the Liberals won. But they didn’t quite get the majority they wanted, at least not right away. So, Sabrina, what do you remember about that election in that campaign?

Sabrina Maddeaux: Well, the downfall of the Conservatives, for over a year prior, it was assumed that the Conservatives were going to be the next government. It wasn’t even a question. They were so far ahead in the polls, and it seemed guaranteed. And then when Carney came in, and certainly with also the issues with the United States contributing to a very different environment and psychology among the electorate, everything just flipped so quickly.

And here we are now with a Carney majority a year later. It was surprising enough that he won the election, but then that he’s translated it into a majority since then is huge and completely unexpected, from where we were just over a year ago.

Mike Moffatt: I mean, I didn’t really see all this floor crossing happening. I will say that I felt like the last couple of weeks of that election campaign just felt like a sleepwalk. The Liberals kind of cost themself a majority a little bit. And the big thing, for me, being a kid from East London was seeing the NDP basically get eliminated and all these kind of blue-collar ridings. So, I think that’s a trend worth watching to see if we are moving to, at least in English Canada, a two-party system or if we’re going to continue to have an NDP and a Green Party and some of these smaller parties.

Sabrina Maddeaux: And the other thing we saw was how influential the Baby Boomer and senior vote was as well. They really carried the Carney government into office. And, as we’ll talk about, I think that’s influenced some of their policy choices and priorities since.

Mike Moffatt: Yeah, absolutely. And I think that the seniors point is important, because now we are here. It’s a year later, and the Liberals are up about 45 to 33 in most polls against the Conservatives, with the exception of Abacus. Abacus has it at 45 to 38. They use a slightly different methodology that’s a little bit more forgiving to the Torie. As you can imagine, there’s a lot of debate on social media about that, but we’ll let David Collado speak for himself.

But if we look at most of the polls, they all show similar dynamics when it comes to demographics. The Tories are still competitive with the Liberals among most age groups, but as you’re pointing out, the Liberals have this massive lead with older voters.

Our friends at Ipsos find that roughly half of voters aged 55 and up would vote Liberal if an election were held today. And Abacus finds the same thing for 60s and up. So overall, they had this massive advantage during the election, and I think if anything, that’s just gotten stronger.

Sabrina Maddeaux: And we’ve seen just a huge gap in different age groups, younger versus older Canadians in their policy priorities, their issue sets, especially for older Canadians. They’ve been really seized by the geopolitical climate and the threat coming from south of the border on trade, tariffs, and sovereignty. And because of that, I think some cost-of-living and housing affordability issues have taken more of a back seat than I would have expected.

Mike Moffatt: Yeah, absolutely. And I think it all gets around to that idea that popularity is not performance. If a party is speaking about a certain topic or issue that is important to a certain demographic, they’re likely to do well with that. But I’d like to look at performance because you and I thought it would be a useful exercise to actually grade the performance of the first year of the Carney government. Go through what they are doing well and where they are struggling.

So what I did was I picked five issues of importance to middle-class Canadians based on the most recent Abacus poll, and I thought we could assess the performance of the government on each one.

So are you ready to play the role of professor and hand out some grades in April?

Sabrina Maddeaux

I am, let’s do it.

Mike Moffatt: So the number one issue of Canadians by far is the Rising Cost of Living, with two-thirds of all Canadians citing it as a top three issue. And Abacus finds that voters who care about the issue give a slight edge to the Tories on this one. But it’s close. There’s a little bias in the Abacus poll, or statistical bias in the Abacus poll, for the Conservatives, so I think we could pretty much call it even.

So, when it comes to the Rising Cost of Living, how would you assess the Carney’s government’s performance on the issue, and what grade would you give them?

Sabrina Maddeaux: I’d say it’s pretty middling. I’d probably give a B or B-. I do that because some of it is outside of their control.

Obviously, what we’re seeing internationally with geopolitics, with wars, with supply chain issues, with some of the tariff threats from the states, there’s only so much that any government would be able to do to influence or hedge against those factors.

But at the same time, I think that the current government could have been more aggressive in addressing the cost of living, whether that’s through tax reform, or even the cost of living ties into employment as well. Canadians need to make good wages, and they’re not making good wages. Especially younger Canadians who are having a hard time even finding jobs, which compounds the issue. So, they haven’t moved with this much urgency on this, as I would have liked to see.

What are your thoughts?

Mike Moffatt: Yeah, I’m kind of with you, so I’ll leave the job piece aside because we’re going to get to that in a moment, but if we’re just looking at consumer prices, I agree that there’s not much governments can do in the short term. And, in the short term, I think globally we’ve been okay; the inflation rate has been 2.4% over the first year of the Carney government. We’ve got a Bank of Canada that has a mandate to keep inflation around 2%, and we’re at 2.4%. And, most of the policies that governments can use to make life more affordable are by reducing taxes on certain things and the government’s done that. The Carney government’s done it.

If you look at the very first policy Carney had, which was to eliminate the consumer carbon tax, which ended up being quite popular and reversed one of Trudeau’s signature initiatives and really cut the legs out from under Polievre. He’s recently reduced gas taxes, albeit temporarily. So I’ve got to give him a split grade right here. Overall, I’ll give him a B-plus on affordability; inflation’s been decent, and they’re trying things. But as somebody who’s voted Green Party most of his life, I gotta give him an F on climate - it seems that their affordability initiatives are all undoing, Trudeau era climate policy. For a lot of Conservatives, they see that as a great thing, but as somebody who comes from the environmental movement, I look at this and I go like, really? That’s where we’re going to get our affordability benefits from? Scaling back a climate policy?

Sabrina Maddeaux: I’m not sure. I’m going to be on the Conservative side here. We shouldn’t have a climate policy through taxation. I think if you want the public to buy into climate policy, more broadly, it can’t always have negative impacts on their wallets and their quality of life. And that seems to be the way that governments were dealing with climate for a long time.

I’d like to see more investments in innovation. Major projects, allowing Canadian firms that might have interesting tech solutions for various aspects of business related to the climate, to be able to start up and compete here and get investment. And we’ve seen a little bit of movement there, but there are still so many gaps.

Mike Moffatt: Yeah, absolutely. And the public’s with you. They’re not with me on this one. So it’s completely understandable that the government would do this.

I think it’s a lesson for the environmental movement that you can’t just try to get good policy enacted, but you’re not going to have the ability to continue to have those policies if the public isn’t on board.

So I’m going to look at the next issue, and I’m actually gonna lump a couple together because I think they’re interrelated. So, Abacus says The Economy is the number two issue and Job Security and Unemployment as the number nine issue.

Now, I was a bit surprised that Unemployment was number nine. But here we are. And anyhow, like before, voters who care about these issues have the two parties in a dead heat. So how well would you say the Carney Liberals are performing on The Economy and Job Security and Unemployment?

Sabrina Maddeaux: Job security in particular is a big red flag for me. I’d give them a D, especially for young people. The challenges in the job market are just massive. We’re in a low-hire, low-fire environment, so we are seeing more and more layoffs. But the problem is, if you do leave a job or you get laid off, no one is hiring. So we’re seeing longer-term unemployment surge as well. And we haven’t had any really meaningful reform of the EI system to address that, they’re a lot of people falling through the cracks.

At the same time, while immigration numbers have come down slightly and there have been rollbacks on international students, even temporary foreign workers, there’s still too much competition for Canadians and people already here who are looking for jobs. And there seems to be a reluctance to address that at the scale that I think is necessary for the current environment. Even just the transparency around unemployment and the level of layoffs we’re seeing, I mean, so many companies don’t necessarily do huge mass one-time layoffs now. They’re just in a state of perpetual layoffs. Particularly, profitable companies that are getting government money or enjoy government protections, I think, need a closer look as well.

Mike Moffatt: Yeah, I think all that’s fair. And I love when you do callbacks to old episodes, whether or not that was intentional or unintentional. So we’ll link to the episode where we talk about that low-hire, low-fire equilibrium. Overall, I’m in the middle of the road here.

I look at GDP growth as one of the indicators. It’s been under 1%, but it’s been positive. There were real concerns that over the last 12 months, we would have a recession. We haven’t had one yet. We are projected to be the second fastest-growing G7 country this year in terms of GDP. But it’s still really low because of all of the things that are happening geopolitically.

So it’s not that we’re growing well. It’s just that everybody else is doing terribly.

And speaking of terrible, you’re absolutely right that the labour market for youth is just awful right now. And I’ve been a bit surprised that we haven’t seen more activity from the government, or even more acknowledgment of the issue. So it’s a difficult thing for governments to immediately correct. But usually, there’s a little bit more acknowledgment that there’s an issue there, haven’t really seen it.

Sabrina Maddeaux: It feels a bit like the housing crisis, where governments and politicians just did not want to talk about it for so long until it reached such epic proportions. And that’s my worry, especially with youth unemployment and longer-term youth unemployment as well.

Because even if young people eventually make their way back into the workforce, lifetime earnings are impacted, productivity is impacted. I mean, there are so many ripple effects here. And to me, I’m not seeing the Carney government take it at the level of seriousness that I think it should. And at the same time, the stats for entrepreneurship are terrible at the moment. Entrepreneurs who actually hire other people are at huge lows compared to pre-pandemic; we never made that rebound.

So on the other flip side, we have unemployment being an issue, but we’re not enabling people to do so if they can’t find that traditional full-time role, start their own businesses and hire others by doing that as well.

Mike Moffatt: Yeah, absolutely.

I suppose in their defence, a lot of that is the kind of thing that you can only correct in the long run. But you do need to acknowledge that it’s a problem. And I also worry about the lack of those long-term policies. I see a lot of talk at a 30,000ft level about addressing competitiveness and being able to build infrastructure, major projects and all of these things.

But I’m not seeing much activity. I’ve seen a lot of talk, but not much actually gets done. So I’ll give them a C here. I need to see a lot more in a year or two. Because this year I’m willing to give them a little bit of a pass because they’re new, but I think they’ve got to ramp this up because we’re not seeing much in the short run. We’re seeing a lot of rhetoric for the long run, but not a whole lot of action.

So I’m going to skip around a little bit and look at issues where one of the parties has a big advantage over the other. So, according to Abacus, the fourth most important issue to Canadians is Donald Trump and his administration. And of the voters who put it as a top-three issue. So not all voters, but just voters who really care about this issue. The Liberals have an absolutely massive advantage over the Conservatives, with nearly two-thirds of those voters citing the issue, saying that they would vote Liberal if there were an election today. So, that’s popularity again, but if we look at actual performance in terms of outcomes, I’d love to get your take.

Sabrina Maddeaux: I’d give them another B here. Obviously, there are ongoing issues. And then we have CUSMA negotiations coming up, but a lot of that has been effectively out of their hands.

When you have a President who changes his mind by the day - sometimes by the hour - and doesn’t negotiate, or hold himself to agreements, in the way that politicians in the United States have done for years and years and decades, that’s a problem. So Carney is doing what he can overall. And it’s difficult, as he also has to walk a fine line with voters who really want to see him stand up, elbows up, to the States. But at the same time, that can turn off people as we go into the negotiating room as well. So it’s really tricky.

The key here is that there’s really no alternative to them in terms of the Conservatives or the NDP coming up with an approach, or comms or anything cohesive on this that is clicking. The other parties just seem not to know what to do, or at least not be able to do what they need to do in a way that keeps their base happy, but also appeals to the broader public. So Carney comes out looking better no matter what, largely because of the others’ failures as well.

Mike Moffatt: Yeah, and I think that’s a theme in a lot of these.

Overall, I think the idea that there’s some deal to be had here right now with the current U.S. administration, I think is just fantasy. You’re absolutely right that Carney has to walk a line where we have to deal with the U.S., but he also has to deal with domestic political concerns and given that his audience is seniors up here who don’t necessarily have to worry about their jobs, because they’re retired, they are a little bit more elbows up. They’re old enough to remember Gordie Howe, so they are a little bit more aggressive in a way that probably doesn’t help Carney deal with the U.S.

So I’d say there are a few missteps here, but overall, I think the government has played this exceptionally well. So I’m going to give them an A. I could see people giving them an A-plus. I think that’s a little generous. I do think there have been a few missteps, but overall, I’ve given them an A - no complaints.

Now, the flip side of the Trump issue is Immigration, the sixth most important issue to Canadians. And of those who rated it as a top-three issue, the Tories have a massive lead over the Liberals. It’s almost an exact inverse of their assessment of the Canada-U.S. relationship. With the Conservatives having about two-thirds of those voters, do those Conservative voters have a point?

Sabrina Maddeaux: Yes. I would give the government a C on this one so far. There obviously have been some changes with international students and temporary foreign workers, but there doesn’t seem to be a plan beyond the next two years on where immigration goes in this country and how it is sustainable long term. And there are still issues with temporary foreign workers competing with Canadians for jobs.

But beyond even just the numbers argument, the corruption in the immigration system is such that the auditor general had a report come out a few weeks ago, where we see that basic checks and balances aren’t happening for immigration applications. A lot of people are here who shouldn’t be. We’re not tracking exits properly still, and organized crime comes into play. When visas do expire, we have no way of actually ensuring that people are leaving.

At the same time, we’re incurring huge costs when it comes to taxpayer-funded health care for applicants. Even applicants who are denied asylum face a mess.

There are just so many aspects of the immigration issue that the Liberals have been scared to touch. But we need to know if Canadians are going to have faith in the system long term and if our immigration system is going to work for the country again. Both on an economic level and socially and culturally as well.

Mike Moffatt: Yeah, I would say if anything, your C is generous. The government really hasn’t done anything, and that is not a compliment. Both the run-up of population growth and the climb down were under the previous government. There were a lot of policies there, some bad, some good. But that was all the previous government. This government really hasn’t done much.

We have an Immigration Minister who is not a good communicator and can not let us know what’s going on. And there’s so much uncertainty right now around the future of immigration rates, the future of international student policies, temporary foreign worker policies and so on, that the current plans only extend to the end of 2027. And that lack of a long-term plan is deterring investment.

Like, if you are a developer who wants to build a high-rise rental or condo, part of what you’re betting on is the future rate of population growth. And if you don’t know how fast the population is going to grow, it makes that investment riskier. So you’re less likely to do it, even if on net it would be a decent project. So I really want to see this government come out with a ten-year plan and say, " This is what we see the future looking like,” and then industry and business can make their investments accordingly.

Obviously, you and I have our views on what should be in that plan. I definitely think we have to tamp down on the use of temporary foreign workers even further. But overall, the government needs a plan. They don’t have one, so I’m torn. I could either give them an incomplete grade, which profs are allowed to do. Instead, I’ll just say a D. I really don’t think this is going well for the government.

Sabrina Maddeaux: No, it’s an issue that’s only going to become a bigger political liability for them over time as well, because the public is paying attention. It’s an issue that’s in the media and making headlines from multiple angles all the time. And it’s something they need to get serious about.

I think you’re absolutely right. I think it’s not hurting them that much right now because, again, it’s the number six issue. But if the salience of that issue increases and the fact that the Tories lead on this, something like 60 to 20, it’s going to be a massive problem for the Liberal government.

Mike Moffatt: And finally, because we’re the missing middle, we have to talk about housing.

Housing Affordability and Accessibility rank fifth overall as an issue, with 42% of voters citing it as a top three issue, saying that they would vote Liberal, 36% preferring the Conservatives. So the Liberals have a slight lead, but it’s not massive. What’s your take on it?

Sabrina Maddeaux: Also a lower grade. I’d give a D here.

The housing crisis continues. It’s no longer just a crisis for one demographic, being first-time buyers, but also second-time buyers and older Canadians, seniors, looking to downsize. Everyone is suffering here, and it’s not something that is ever going to be fixed overnight. I mean, you’re limited obviously, by how quickly you can bring supply online.

And this will take several years to correct, but they have not been as ambitious as I would have expected, and they haven’t even fully lived up to all the housing promises they made in their platform.

Mike Moffatt: Yeah, I think we have to assess the government based on policy, not outcomes, because it takes a very long time to build a home. And six weeks ago, I would have agreed with you. I would have given them a very poor grade. I actually probably would have given them a D-minus. They have had some action, but there’s no MURB program, and that was one of the big promises during the campaign. They haven’t moved on that. And the ones they have moved on, like Build Canada Homes, it’s got governance issues. There’s a lack of targets. It doesn’t seem particularly well designed. And as well, there are preexisting programs that I don’t think are working too well under the current government. So the Housing Accelerator Fund, which was a Trudeau-era program, this government really hasn’t been enforcing the requirements on municipalities to the kind of strength they need to be.

So six weeks ago, I would have said a D-minus.

But I’m going to be a lot more generous now because the federal government has signed two really important deals with the province of Ontario. One, eliminating HST on new homes under $1 million for the next year, and a second program that reduces development charges by up to 50% for three years. Those are temporary, but while they’re in effect, I think they’re massive game changers.

It’s good. It’s only one province. So I’ll say a B-minus for now. But this year is absolutely pivotal.

Sabrina Maddeaux: And those policy changes are big. And to me they’re just a start. But they need to go so much farther on this. And it also ties into the immigration issue as well because that has spiked over the years, demand for housing, especially in certain university towns, especially in urban centers. And there’s no plan right now for how they’re going to rebalance immigration and housing long term, which is a big red flag for me.

Mike Moffatt: Yeah. And I think that’s kind of the big theme of this episode: there’s a lot of great rhetoric, there’s a lot of good talk, but the policies aren’t there, or there’s a lack of plans, and they’re not meeting the ambition that this government has set through their rhetoric.

Sabrina Maddeaux: Thank you, everyone, for watching and listening and to our producer, Meredith Martin, and our editor, Sean Foreman.

Mike Moffatt: And if you have any thoughts or questions about Gordie Howe, please send us an email to [email protected].

Sabrina Maddeaux: And we’ll see you next time.

Additional Reading/Listening that Helped Inform the Episode:

David Coletto X Post

Abacus Data

Ipsos Data

The Hidden Job Market Crisis No One Is Talking About

Funded by the Neptis Foundation

Brought to you by the Missing Middle Initiative